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Backtested, allocation-capped strategies · variance shaping, never a promised edge

Home Underdog ML Index

43% hit rate · 15% cap

Live Polymarket odds

MLB · 2021-2025+50.3%

Favorite Fighter Index

93% hit rate · 15% cap

Live Polymarket odds

UFC · UFC 324+66.7%

Heavy Favorite Index

100% hit rate (small sample) · 20% cap

Live Polymarket odds

UFC · UFC 324+20.3%

World Series Favorites — Hold to End Index

25% hit rate, small sample · 15% cap

Live Polymarket odds

MLB · 2022-2025+75.0%

MLB F5 Pitcher Edge Index

57% hit rate · 3% cap

Live Polymarket odds

MLB · 2022-2025+16.0%

MLB Home Sweep Avoidance Index

54% hit rate · 10% cap

Live Polymarket odds

MLB · 2022-2025+35.8%

MLB Streak Regression Index

43% hit rate · 15% cap

Live Polymarket odds

MLB · 2022-2025 (avg)+26.0%

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US Open Top-4 Favorites Futures Index (Women's)

Backtested · 25% cap

Opens Aug 30, 2027 · US Open begins

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US Open Equal-Payout Favorites Futures Index (Men's)

Backtested · 25% cap

Opens Aug 30, 2027 · US Open begins

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US Open Equal-Payout Favorites Futures Index (Women's)

Backtested · 25% cap

Opens Aug 30, 2027 · US Open begins

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US Open Equal-Payout Favorites Futures Index (Combined)

Backtested · 20% cap

Opens Aug 30, 2027 · US Open begins

Quality Underdog — 25-35% Price Band

33% hit rate · 10% cap

Live odds unavailable

NCAA · 2021-2025Average ROI+19.0%

Quality Underdog — 45-50% Price Band

49% hit rate · 10% cap

Live odds unavailable

NCAA · 2021-2025Average ROI+10.0%

One-Loss Contender vs. Undefeated

56% hit rate · 10% cap

Live odds unavailable

NCAA · 2021-2025Average ROI+12.8%

Heisman Top-4 Favorites

Season-long · Equal-Split

Live Polymarket odds

NCAA · 2021-2025Average ROI+95.7%

Big Ten Championship Top-4 Favorites

Season-long · Equal-Split

Live Polymarket odds

NCAA · 2021-2025Average ROI+50.1%

Divisional Home Underdog (ML)

36% hit rate · 10% cap

Live Polymarket odds

NFL · 2021-2025+16.1%

Big Favorite Spread Fade

52% hit rate · 10% cap

Live Polymarket odds

NFL · 2021-2025+7.2%

Thursday/Short-Week Under

55% hit rate · 10% cap

Live Polymarket odds

NFL · 2021-2025+5.2%

Post-Overtime Fade (ML)

3/5 profitable seasons · Backtest only

Live odds unavailable

NFL · 2021-2025+9.2%

Post-Overtime Under

4/5 profitable seasons · Backtest only

Live odds unavailable

NFL · 2021-2025+13.5%

NFL MVP Top-4

Season-long · Equal-Split

Live Polymarket odds

NFL · 2024-2025Average ROI+142.0%

NFL DPOY Top-4

Season-long · Equal-Split

Live Polymarket odds

NFL · 2024-2025Average ROI+94.6%

EPL Champion — Top-4 favorites

Season-long · Single-winner

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2024/25-2025/26Average ROI+22.4%

EPL Champion — #2-5

Season-long · Single-winner

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2024/25-2025/26Average ROI+22.4%

Golden Boot — Top-4 favorites

Season-long · Single-winner

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2024/25-2025/26Average ROI+218.3%

Player of the Season — Top-4 favorites

Season-long · Single-winner

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2025/26Average ROI+122.9%

Top-4 Finish — Top-6/8 favorites

Season-long · Multi-winner

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2025/26Average ROI+57.2%

Top-4 Finish — Mid-Cap band

Season-long · Multi-winner

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2025/26Average ROI+151.7%

Underdog +1.5 ETF

126 real bets · 10% cap

Live Polymarket odds

Premier League (EPL) · 2021-2025+161.6%

Big Six Fade

60 real bets · 10% cap

Live odds unavailable

Premier League (EPL) · 2021-2025+14.7%