Baseball · MLB
MLB F5 Pitcher Edge Index
Bets on the moneyline for the first five innings of an MLB game, isolating the starting-pitcher matchup before bullpens get involved.
Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.
Live · strategy average · 8 picks, equal-weighted
Equal-weighted average of every pick's real odds. Each range shows whoever was actually favored at ITS start, tracked through to now — not today's picks rewound. Not yet weighted by real dollars, since no position is bought into this strategy today; once a real purchase exists, this line becomes that position's real dollar value over time instead.
Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection.
| Market | Implied odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds | 99.6% |
| Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 100.0% |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros | 58.1% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets | 53.5% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox | 51.5% |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers | 52.3% |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | 50.5% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds | 55.5% |
Source: Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB), refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.
Real backtest, 3% allocation cap · Baseball · bankroll reset to $10,000 each period.
- Sport / competition
- Baseball · MLB
- Years tested
- 2022-2025
- Total qualifying bets
- 858
- Hit rate
- 57.0%
- Average odds
- 1.85
- Average per-period ROI
- 26.8%
- Recommended allocation cap
- 3%
HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.
Choosing your own cap is coming soon — every strategy trades at its backtested recommendation for now.
Historical, not a guarantee — real results will differ.
Connect your account to tradeReal orders on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Your funds stay in your own venue account — Alto never holds them, and nothing here is advice.