Performance should be understandable, not impressive-looking.
It is easy to make a backtest look better than it really is. Alto is designed around a simple principle: users should be able to understand where a performance number came from.
We show the periods
A strong average can hide weak individual years. That is why Alto can show historical performance period by period rather than relying only on one headline return.
We show the sample size
A strategy tested on 40 qualifying markets should not look identical to one tested on 4,000. Where available, Alto displays the number of qualifying observations behind a result.
Losses remain losses
Historical losing positions are included in results. They are not removed because they make the strategy look worse.
Settled positions are settled
A position that has resolved is reflected according to its true outcome. It is not kept open or marked in a way that artificially improves portfolio performance.
We separate simulation from reality
Simulated performance is labeled as simulated. Backtested performance is labeled as historical. Live performance, when available, will be identified separately.
We do not want users confusing one for another.
We disclose limitations
Historical datasets can be incomplete. Market structures change. Liquidity changes. Odds change. The number of available markets changes.
When a material limitation affects the interpretation of a strategy, Alto should disclose it rather than hide it.
No guaranteed returns
A strategy can have strong historical results and lose money in the future. Alto does not present historical ROI as an expected or guaranteed return.
Methodology changes should be visible
Strategies can evolve as data improves. Material changes to a strategy’s rules or methodology should not silently rewrite its historical story.
Where appropriate, Alto will identify meaningful changes to the way a strategy is calculated or evaluated.
Trust the process, then judge the result.
Our goal is not to show the highest number possible. It is to give users enough information to decide whether the number means anything.