Football · NCAA
One-Loss Contender vs. Undefeated
From Week 8 onward, buys the one-loss team when it plays an undefeated opponent — the hypothesis being that undefeated teams accumulate a reputation premium as the season goes on that isn't fully warranted. (#48, ATS 2021-23 · Moneyline 2024-25)
Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.
Live price history is unavailable right now.
Checked live against this week's real schedule, rankings, and lines — not a fixed roster.
Live qualification data is unavailable right now — CollegeFootballData.com may be unreachable, or the season calendar hasn't started yet.
Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection.
This week's qualifying game(s) don't have a matched Polymarket market yet.
Source: Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB), refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.
Real backtest, 10% allocation cap · Football · bankroll reset to $10,000 each period. Sportsbook years use real sportsbook lines; Polymarket years use real Polymarket prices, priced once a real market existed for this.
- Sport / competition
- Football · NCAA
- Years tested
- 2021-2025
- Total qualifying bets
- 27
- Hit rate
- 55.6%
- Average odds
- 1.91
- Average per-period ROI
- 12.8%
- Average ROI · Polymarket years
- 38.8%
- Recommended allocation cap
- 10%
HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.
On average, 5.4 real games across 3.4 of the season's ~15 weeks each year (2021-2025) — spread across the season, never one lump sum on a single week.
Each column is one real week of the season (Week 1-15) — darker means this strategy qualified more often that week across the 5 real backtest seasons; a blank week means it never has. Hover a week for the exact count. Which weeks actually qualify THIS season depends on real games/rankings/lines that don't exist yet — this is the real historical pattern, not a promise for this specific season.
Choosing your own cap is coming soon — every strategy trades at its backtested recommendation for now.
Historical, not a guarantee — real results will differ.
Connect your account to tradeReal orders on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Your funds stay in your own venue account — Alto never holds them, and nothing here is advice.