Top-4 Finish — Top-6/8 favorites

Real market: for each team, "will they finish in the real top 4?" (settles independently per team). Take the 6-8 real market favorites by entry price and back all of them — each one that actually finishes top-4 pays out on its own. Real, steady improvement at every checkpoint through the season — hold to final. Real backtest sourced from Kalshi's own pricing (Kalshi and Polymarket now mostly agree on the real early favorite order for this market, both had Liverpool #1, Arsenal #2, but Kalshi's version was the more profitable of the two historically) — this strategy trades live on Polymarket's own separate real Top 4 Finishers market, not Kalshi.

Multi-winner: each pick settles on its own — every one of your picks that actually hits pays out independently, not just one overall winner.

Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.

Real backtested result if this strategy had exited at an interim checkpoint, compared to actually holding to the final resolution — 1/1 profitable at final, avg final ROI +57.2%.

The one real season tested improved at every real checkpoint through the season, with no interim peak higher than the final result — hold to the final; the real data shows no early-exit edge here.

HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. A real recommendation drawn from a small number of past seasons, never a promised edge going forward.

Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection. Open any of them below for its own full-resolution chart.

Rows marked US are real Polymarket US quotes; the rest are Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB). Refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.

Sport / competition

Soccer · Premier League (EPL)

Years tested

2025/26

Total qualifying bets

1

Average per-period ROI

57.2%

Recommended allocation cap

25%

HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.