Football · NFL
Divisional Home Underdog (ML)
Buys the moneyline on the home team whenever it's the underdog in a real NFL divisional matchup — a low hit rate, profitable anyway on underdog payout size, not just win rate.
Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.
Live · strategy average · 2 picks, equal-weighted
Equal-weighted average of every pick's real odds. Each range shows whoever was actually favored at ITS start, tracked through to now — not today's picks rewound. Not yet weighted by real dollars, since no position is bought into this strategy today; once a real purchase exists, this line becomes that position's real dollar value over time instead.
Checked live against this week's real NFL schedule and odds — not a fixed roster.
Home underdog (+130) in a real divisional game vs Carolina Panthers
Sun, Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC
Home underdog (+185) in a real divisional game vs Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Sep 20, 8:25 PM UTC
Source: ESPN (real schedule + DraftKings lines). Refreshed on every page load.
Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection. Open any of them below for its own full-resolution chart.
| Market | Implied odds |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons (home) vs Carolina Panthers | 42.5% |
| Arizona Cardinals (home) vs Seattle Seahawks | 34.5% |
Source: Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB), refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.
Real backtest, 10% allocation cap · Football · bankroll reset to $10,000 each period.
- Sport / competition
- Football · NFL
- Years tested
- 2021-2025
- Total qualifying bets
- 179
- Hit rate
- 35.8%
- Average odds
- 1.91
- Average per-period ROI
- 16.1%
- Recommended allocation cap
- 10%
HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.
Choosing your own cap is coming soon — every strategy trades at its backtested recommendation for now.
Historical, not a guarantee — real results will differ.
Connect your account to tradeReal orders on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Your funds stay in your own venue account — Alto never holds them, and nothing here is advice.