Post-Overtime Fade (ML)

The real trigger: a team just went to overtime. Fades that team's moneyline in its NEXT game — the idea being a real, physically taxing OT game hurts the following week's performance. Timing and count of OT games are unpredictable game to game, so this needs capital reserved in advance, deployed only when the trigger actually fires — not automated yet, backtest-only for now. Real trigger counts range 20-38 a season (avg 29.6, median 28, 75th percentile 36) — sizing capital to the average risks running dry in a high-OT year like 2021 or 2022; a real reserved-capital design would need to size to the 75th percentile or a dynamic cap, not the average. Shares the exact same real trigger event as Post-Overtime Under below — the two would need to share one reserved pool if ever run together, not double-reserve.

Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.

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Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection. Open any of them below for its own full-resolution chart.

Source: Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB), refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.

Sport / competition

Football · NFL

Years tested

2021-2025

Total qualifying bets

148

Hit rate

60.0%

Average odds

1.91

Average per-period ROI

9.2%

Recommended allocation cap

10%

HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.