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Football · NFL

Thursday/Short-Week Under

Bets the under on every real Thursday Night Football total — known in advance every week which game qualifies, since the NFL's own schedule fixes it. Only about one trade a week, so real capital recycling matters far less here than on the higher-volume rolling strategies.

Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.

Strategy performanceLIVE

Live · strategy average · 1 pick, equal-weighted

49.5%Sep 17, 2026
-12.3% · 1W
66%60%54%48%

Equal-weighted average of every pick's real odds. Each range shows whoever was actually favored at ITS start, tracked through to now — not today's picks rewound. Not yet weighted by real dollars, since no position is bought into this strategy today; once a real purchase exists, this line becomes that position's real dollar value over time instead.

This week's qualifying games

Checked live against this week's real NFL schedule and odds — not a fixed roster.

Week 2LIVE
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo BillsO/U 54.5

Real Thursday night game — bets the under at 54.5

Fri, Sep 18, 12:15 AM UTC

Source: ESPN (real schedule + DraftKings lines). Refreshed on every page load.

Individual bets in this strategy

Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection. Open any of them below for its own full-resolution chart.

Under49.5%
49.5%
MarketImplied odds
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills: Under49.5%

Source: Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB), refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.

Performance by period
Historical
Average ROI+5.2%
-45%0%45%+31.3%2021+23.5%2022-28.4%2023-10.2%2024+9.8%2025

Real backtest, 10% allocation cap · Football · bankroll reset to $10,000 each period.

Backtest results
Sport / competition
Football · NFL
Years tested
2021-2025
Total qualifying bets
86
Hit rate
54.7%
Average odds
1.91
Average per-period ROI
5.2%
Recommended allocation cap
10%

HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.

Trade
Sell
NFL
This basket · 1 live market
Under
Yes 50¢No 51¢
Max allocation10%

Choosing your own cap is coming soon — every strategy trades at its backtested recommendation for now.

$
Total$100
At this strategy's backtest ROI$105.2

Historical, not a guarantee — real results will differ.

Connect your account to trade

Real orders on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Your funds stay in your own venue account — Alto never holds them, and nothing here is advice.

More NFL strategies

Alto is a self-directed, non-custodial software interface — it never holds your funds. Orders placed here are real, executed in your own account at Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange; your money stays at the venue. Baskets are impersonal and standardized; nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation. Backtested figures are historical and are not a promise of future results. Availability is geo-routed by jurisdiction. Prediction-market trading involves substantial risk of loss.

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