Football · NFL

Big Favorite Spread Fade

Fades any team favored by 7+ points, backing the other side against the real spread. The highest-volume NFL strategy here, the best real candidate for capital recycling.

Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.

Strategy performanceLIVE

Live · strategy average · 5 picks, equal-weighted

48.6%Sep 17, 2026

-11.1% · 1W

Equal-weighted average of every pick's real odds. Each range shows whoever was actually favored at ITS start, tracked through to now — not today's picks rewound. Not yet weighted by real dollars, since no position is bought into this strategy today; once a real purchase exists, this line becomes that position's real dollar value over time instead.

This week's qualifying games

Checked live against this week's real NFL schedule and odds — not a fixed roster.

Week 2LIVE

Tennessee Titans (home) · Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans+7.0 · ML +250

Fades Philadelphia Eagles, a real 7.0-point favorite

Sun, Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC

Cleveland Browns (away) · Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers+8.5 · ML +350

Fades Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a real 8.5-point favorite

Sun, Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC

New Orleans Saints (away) · New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens+7.5 · ML +300

Fades Baltimore Ravens, a real 7.5-point favorite

Sun, Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC

Miami Dolphins (away) · Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers+13.5 · ML +600

Fades San Francisco 49ers, a real 13.5-point favorite

Sun, Sep 20, 8:25 PM UTC

New York Giants (away) · New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams+7.0 · ML +285

Fades Los Angeles Rams, a real 7.0-point favorite

Tue, Sep 22, 12:15 AM UTC

Source: ESPN (real schedule + DraftKings lines). Refreshed on every page load.

Individual bets in this strategy

Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection. Open any of them below for its own full-resolution chart.

Tennessee Titans45.5%

Cleveland Browns51.5%

New Orleans Saints49.0%

Miami Dolphins51.5%

New York Giants45.5%

51.5%

49.0%

45.5%

Market	Implied odds
Tennessee Titans (home) vs Philadelphia Eagles — fades a 7-pt favorite	45.5%
Cleveland Browns (away) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — fades a 8.5-pt favorite	51.5%
New Orleans Saints (away) vs Baltimore Ravens — fades a 7.5-pt favorite	49.0%
Miami Dolphins (away) vs San Francisco 49ers — fades a 13.5-pt favorite	51.5%
New York Giants (away) vs Los Angeles Rams — fades a 7-pt favorite	45.5%

Source: Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB), refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.

Performance by period

Historical

Average ROI+7.2%

Real backtest, 10% allocation cap · Football · bankroll reset to $10,000 each period.

Backtest results

Sport / competition: Football · NFL
Years tested: 2021-2025
Total qualifying bets: 365
Hit rate: 52.4%
Average odds: 1.91
Average per-period ROI: 7.2%
Recommended allocation cap: 10%

HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.

Trade

Sell

This basket · 5 live markets

Tennessee Titans

Yes 46¢No 54¢

Cleveland Browns

Yes 52¢No 49¢

New Orleans Saints

Yes 49¢No 51¢

Miami Dolphins

Yes 52¢No 49¢

New York Giants

Yes 46¢No 54¢

Max allocation10%

Choosing your own cap is coming soon — every strategy trades at its backtested recommendation for now.

Amount to invest

Total$100

At this strategy's backtest ROI$107.24

Historical, not a guarantee — real results will differ.

Connect your account to trade

Real orders on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Your funds stay in your own venue account — Alto never holds them, and nothing here is advice.

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