Baseball · MLB
Home Underdog ML Index
Backs the home team's moneyline whenever they're priced as the underdog — betting that home advantage offsets the pricing.
Backtested and allocation-capped — a historical result, never a promised edge.
Live · strategy average · 8 picks, equal-weightedCurrent price: Polymarket US (6/8 picks)
Equal-weighted average of every pick's real odds. Each range shows whoever was actually favored at ITS start, tracked through to now — not today's picks rewound. Not yet weighted by real dollars, since no position is bought into this strategy today; once a real purchase exists, this line becomes that position's real dollar value over time instead.
Live price for every market this strategy currently tracks — each line is one selection.
| Market | Implied odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds | 99.6% |
| Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 100.0% |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros | 58.5%US |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets | 54.0%US |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox | 51.5%US |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers | 53.0%US |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | 51.0%US |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds | 56.0%US |
Rows marked US are real Polymarket US quotes; the rest are Polymarket (gamma-api + CLOB). Refreshed at most every 60 seconds. Prices are market odds, not a recommendation.
Real backtest, 15% allocation cap · Baseball · bankroll reset to $10,000 each period.
- Sport / competition
- Baseball · MLB
- Years tested
- 2021-2025
- Total qualifying bets
- 1566
- Hit rate
- 42.6%
- Average odds
- 2.24
- Average per-period ROI
- 50.3%
- Recommended allocation cap
- 15%
HISTORICAL BACKTEST — NOT A GUARANTEE. Past hit rate and odds do not predict future results.
Choosing your own cap is coming soon — every strategy trades at its backtested recommendation for now.
Historical, not a guarantee — real results will differ.
Connect your account to tradeReal orders on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Your funds stay in your own venue account — Alto never holds them, and nothing here is advice.